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Kathy Orr's Exclusive Winter Forecast

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Nov 18, 2009 5:33 pm US/Eastern

Kathy Orr's Exclusive Winter Forecast

PHILADELPHIA (CBS 3) ―

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CBS 3 meteorologist Kathy Orr knows a lot of people are wondering what the winter will bring. Will there be a white Christmas? Will there be an above-average snowfall? Will temperatures be unseasonably cold? She analyzed the trends and crunched the numbers to bring us her exclusive winter forecast.

Ah, the sights and sounds of winter. It's what some people are looking forward to.

"Hopefully we'll have snow," said Roy Knauth of Feasterville. "I like to ski."

Everyone has a prediction about this winter, even if it isn't scientific.

"I have heard it is going to be pretty tough," said Mahesha Mitchell of Philadelphia. "It is going to be ugly."

"I think it is going to be a cold winter," theorized Caroline Mortgu of Palmyra, New Jersey. "There are a lot of holly berries, and the wooly bear, I have seen him. His red stripe, which is the color of your coat, is very thick!"

While there will be the usual ups and downs in temperature, do not expect a lot of warmth this winter, for good reason! El Nino is back and will have an influence on our winter weather.

We have been keeping an eye on the warm water current in the Eastern Pacific throughout the fall. It has strengthened, pointing to a more active winter.

In the CBS 3 Weather Center we have tracked decades of similar El Nino years and studied their weather patterns as well as other climate clues. We think that at least 50 percent of our snow this year will come from coastal storms.

With that in mind, here is the official CBS 3 winter forecast:

First, let's look at temperatures. We will ease into winter in December with the average high temperature around the monthly high of 44 degrees. I do not expect snow close to the holidays, so there is little chance of a white Christmas.

High temperatures in January will be below normal. The average monthly high is 39 degrees.

In February, the monthly average will be below the normal high of 42 degrees.

Snow plows will be busier this year. I expect at least 2 storms with 6 or more inches of snow and even a chance of one major East Coast snowstorm. These are most likely to happen between late January and late February.

This year, I am forecasting above-average snowfall with a range of 26 to 33 inches.

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